Next United Kingdom general election
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The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than January 2025, after the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.
This would also be the first general election to be conducted under the reign of King Charles III.
Background[edit]
The result of the 2019 United Kingdom general election and members in the House of Commons is given below.
| Conservative[a] | 365 | 356 | ||
| Labour[b] | 202 | 195 | ||
| SNP | 48 | 44 | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 11 | 14 | ||
| DUP | 8 | 8 | ||
| Sinn Féin | 7 | 7 | ||
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 3 | ||
| SDLP | 2 | 2 | ||
| Alba | 0[c] | 2 | ||
| Green | 1 | 1 | ||
| Alliance | 1 | 1 | ||
| Speaker | 1 | 1 | ||
| Independent | 0 | 14 | ||
| Vacant | 0 | 2 | ||
| 87[e] | 71[f] |
For full details of changes during the current Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.
Ahead of this general election, HuffPost reported in March 2022 that the Labour Party abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would become an "unlawful" practice again under the Equality Act 2010.[7]
Electoral system[edit]
General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the fifteen-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[8] Provisions for these changes have been enacted in the Elections Act 2022.
Boundary reviews[edit]
The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, was commenced in 2011, but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[9][10][11] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[12][13] and made their reports public a week later.[14][15][16][12] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[17]
A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the new boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[18][19]
In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[20][21] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[22] and the four Boundary Commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[23][24][25][26] They are required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[27] Once the reports have been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.
Date of the election[edit]
At the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[28] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[29]
In December 2020, the government published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 [Repeal] Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[30] In September 2021, Oliver Dowden, the newly appointed chairman of the Conservative Party, told party staff to prepare for a general election. The Daily Telegraph reported that an election could be held in May or June 2023.[31][32] In March 2022, Dowden announced that the Conservatives would start a two-year election campaign in May, implying an election date of May 2024.[33] On becoming Conservative Leader in September 2022, Liz Truss said she would deliver "a great victory for the Conservative Party in 2024".[34]
The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 received royal assent on 24 March 2022 and entered into force the same day. The Prime Minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met." For the MPs elected in the 2019 United Kingdom general election, who first met on 17 December 2019, this means the fifth-anniversary date of 17 December 2024 and the latest possible polling day 25 working days later, which is 28 January 2025.[35][36]
Members of Parliament not standing for re-election[edit]
Members of Parliament not standing for re-election| Douglas Ross | Moray | 2017 | Conservative | 14 October 2021[37] | |
| Alex Cunningham | Stockton North | 2010 | Labour | 25 November 2021[38] | |
| Margaret Hodge | Barking | 1994 | Labour | 2 December 2021[39] | |
| Barry Sheerman | Huddersfield | 1979 | Labour | 4 December 2021[40] | |
| Harriet Harman | Camberwell and Peckham | 1982 | Labour | 7 December 2021[41] | |
| Alan Whitehead | Southampton Test | 1997 | Labour | 14 January 2022[42] | |
| Charles Walker | Broxbourne | 2005 | Conservative | 1 February 2022[43] | |
| Ben Bradshaw | Exeter | 1997 | Labour | 3 February 2022[44] | |
| Wayne David | Caerphilly | 2001 | Labour | 11 February 2022[45] | |
| Paul Blomfield | Sheffield Central | 2010 | Labour | 21 February 2022[46] | |
| Rosie Winterton | Doncaster Central | 1997 | Labour | 27 February 2022[47] | |
| Margaret Beckett | Derby South | Oct. 1974 [Lincoln] | Labour | 25 March 2022[48] | |
| Nigel Adams | Selby and Ainsty | 2010 | Conservative | 9 April 2022[49] | |
| Crispin Blunt | Reigate | 1997 | Conservative | 1 May 2022[50] | |
| Mike Penning | Hemel Hempstead | 2005 | Conservative | 17 May 2022[51] | |
| Adam Afriyie | Windsor | 2005 | Conservative | 22 July 2022[52] | |
| Jon Cruddas | Dagenham and Rainham | 2001 | Labour | 28 July 2022[53] | |
| Colleen Fletcher | Coventry North East | 2015 | Labour | 5 September 2022[54] | |
| Alister Jack | Dumfries and Galloway | 2017 | Conservative | 7 November 2022[55] | |
| Alok Sharma | Reading West | 2010 | Conservative | ||
| Nadine Dorries | Mid Bedfordshire | 2005 | Conservative | ||
| Hywel Williams | Arfon | 2001 | Plaid Cymru | 11 November 2022[56] |
Opinion polling[edit]
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the next United Kingdom general election. The trend lines are local regressions [LOESS].
Notes[edit]
- ^ The Government of the United Kingdom is headed by the Prime Minister, who is currently the leader of the Conservative Party, the largest party in the House of Commons.
- ^ Labour, as the largest party not in government, takes the role of Official Opposition. The Labour total includes 26 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[3]
- ^ At the time of the 2019 election the Alba Party did not exist.[4]
- ^ The seven members of Sinn Féin abstain, i.e. they do not take their seats in the House of Commons;[5] the Speaker and three Deputy Speakers [two Conservative and one Labour] have only a tie-breaking vote constrained by conventions.[6]
- ^ The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting Deputy Speakers [363], minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting Speaker and one Deputy Speaker [276].[2]
- ^ The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting Deputy Speakers [354], minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting Speaker and one Deputy Speaker [283].
References[edit]
- ^ "Results of the 2019 General Election". BBC News. Retrieved 14 December 2019.
- ^ a b "State of the parties". parliament.uk. Retrieved 15 September 2022.
- ^ "About the Party". Co-operative Party. Retrieved 22 February 2019.
- ^ "Registrations - Alba Party". electoralcommission.org.uk. The Electoral Commission. Retrieved 15 October 2022.
- ^ Kelly, Conor [19 August 2019]. "Understanding Sinn Féin's Abstention from the UK Parliament". E-International Relations. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
- ^ Boothroyd, David. "House of Commons: Tied Divisions". United Kingdom Election Results. Retrieved 25 July 2018.
- ^ Rogers, Alexandra [7 March 2022]. "Exclusive: Labour Drops All-Women Shortlists For Next General Election". HuffPost. Retrieved 26 March 2022.
- ^ "Our Plan - Conservative Manifesto 2019". Conservative Party. Retrieved 17 December 2019.
- ^ "Boundary review launched". Boundary Commission for England. 24 February 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "2018 Review of Westminster Parliamentary constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for Wales. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ a b "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. 16 February 2016. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
- ^ "Towards final recommendations [and beyond]". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
- ^ "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for England. Boundary Commission for England. Archived from the original on 10 September 2018. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
- ^ "2018 Review of Westminster Constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
- ^ "2018 Review of Parliamentary constituencies". Boundary Commission for Wales. Archived from the original on 18 October 2016. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
- ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020". Archived from the original on 6 August 2021.
- ^ Jones, Ian [@ian_a_jones] [10 September 2018]. "New constituency boundaries could have given the Tories a majority of 16 at the last election [projection: Rallings/Thrasher]" [Tweet]. Retrieved 30 October 2019 – via Twitter.
- ^ "New parliamentary map would have given Tories a majority of 16 at last election". ITV News. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
- ^ "Correspondence with Chloe Smith MP" [PDF]. parliament.uk.
- ^ Proctor, Kate [26 March 2020]. "MPs no longer to get automatic vote on constituency boundary plans". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
- ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act". legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
- ^ "2023 Review launched". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
- ^ "2023 Review of UK Parliament Constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
- ^ "2023 Review". Boundary Commisison for Wales. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
- ^ "2023 Review: Electoral Quota and Allocation of Constituencies Announced". Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. 5 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
- ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020". Archived from the original on 6 August 2021.
- ^ Kettle, Martin [12 December 2019]. "If the exit poll is right, this election will transform British politics". The Guardian. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
- ^ "Full transcript: The Queen's Speech". The Spectator. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 19 December 2019.
- ^ "Government to fulfil manifesto commitment and scrap Fixed-term Parliaments Act". GOV.UK. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 6 December 2020.
- ^ Hope, Christopher; Diver, Tony [15 September 2021]. "Exclusive: Get ready for a general election, says Oliver Dowden". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 11 January 2022. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
- ^ Ferguson, Emily [16 September 2021]. "MPs told to prepare for 2023 general election as fallout from brutal reshuffle continues". inews.co.uk. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
- ^ Mason, Rowena [18 March 2022]. "Boris Johnson to launch two-year election campaign in May". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 April 2022.
- ^ Jones, Ian [5 September 2022]. "Truss signals possible general election in 2024". Evening Standard. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
- ^ "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022".
- ^ "Representation of the People Act 1983".
- ^ Malik, Paul [14 October 2021]. "Westminster boundary shake-up will impact all Courier voters'". The Courier. Retrieved 14 October 2021.
- ^ "Stockton North MP Alex Cunningham to retire at next election". BBC News. 25 November 2021. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
- ^ "Labour's Margaret Hodge to step down as MP for Barking". BBC News. 2 December 2021. Retrieved 2 December 2021.
- ^ Prest, Victoria [4 December 2021]. "Barry Sheerman to stand down as Huddersfield MP after 40 years". YorkshireLive. Retrieved 6 December 2021.
- ^ Prest, Victoria [7 December 2021]. "Labour MP Harriet Harman to stand down at next election". BBC News. Retrieved 7 December 2021.
- ^ "Southampton Test Labour MP Alan Whitehead to step down". BBC News. 14 January 2022. Retrieved 14 January 2022.
- ^ "Broxbourne's Conservative MP to quit at next election". BBC News. 2 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
- ^ Merritt, Anita [3 February 2022]. "Exeter MP Ben Bradshaw is stepping down after 25 years". DevonLive. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
- ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". 11 February 2022 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
- ^ Kessen, David [21 February 2022]. "Sheffield Central MP Paul Blomfield to stand down from Parliament at next general election". Sheffield Star.
- ^ Hennessey, Ted [27 February 2022]. "Deputy Commons speaker stepping down as Labour MP at next election". The Independent. Archived from the original on 18 June 2022.
- ^ Ovens, Ruth [25 March 2022]. "Dame Margaret Beckett announces she will not stand as MP in next election". Derbyshire Live. Retrieved 25 March 2022.
- ^ "Nigel Adams: Selby and Ainsty MP to stand down at election". BBC News. 9 April 2022. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
- ^ "Crispin Blunt marks 25 Years as Member of Parliament for Reigate". Crispin Blunt MP.
- ^ "Hemel Hempstead MP Sir Mike Penning to retire at next election". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
- ^ "Windsor MP Adam Afriyie to stand down at next general election". BBC News. 22 July 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2022.
- ^ Lynch, Ben [1 August 2022]. "Jon Cruddas, MP for Rainham and Dagenham, to step down at next general election". Romford Recorder. Retrieved 12 August 2022.
- ^ Brown, Ellie [5 September 2022]. "Coventry MP to stand down at next general election". CoventryLive. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
- ^ Adu, Aletha; Walker, Peter [8 November 2022]. "Tory MPs nominated for peerages to delay accepting them". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 November 2022.
- ^ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.